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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



280 
AXNT20 KNHC 051726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the African continent near 07N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of the monsoon
trough from 04N to 09N between the coast of Sierra Leone/Liberia 
and 16W. The ITCZ extends westward from off the coast of Guinea 
near 07N19W to 04N38W to the N coast of Suriname at 06N56W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 16W
and 56W, including the coast of NE Brazil and Suriname.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends westward from N Florida to the E
Mexican coast. This feature is dominating the central and E Gulf 
with light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft. Moderate to 
fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen over the W 
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will linger across the NE Gulf 
through the middle of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh in the W and central Gulf through the next several days. 
While tranquil conditions persist in the E Gulf. A weak cold 
front will move into the Texas coastal waters Mon evening, 
stalling through the night before retreating inland Tue. The weak 
front will move back offshore by Wed evening, quickly stalling 
again and moving back inland early Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the NW basin, N of Honduras. Otherwise, drier fresh to 
strong ENE trades with seas of 8 to 11 ft are dominating the 
central Caribbean Basin; while moderate to fresh trades and seas 
at 6 to 8 ft are seen across the E basin. Gentle to moderate NE to
ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the W basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
S central Caribbean and S of Hispaniola through the week. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to 
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Moderate NE to E swell over the 
Tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue through midweek. 
Active weather across the western Caribbean will end by tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves south-southwestward from a 1020 mb low at 
31N51W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near
this front N of 25N between 45W and 52W. A surface trough is 
triggering scattered showers near SE Florida. Convergent trades 
are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across 
E Cuba and the SE Bahamas, and also near the Cabo Verde Islands 
from 12N to 18N between the Mauritania/Senegal coast and 24W. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A strong 1037 mb Azores High is channeling fresh to strong NE to 
ENE trades with seas at 8 to 11 ft, near the Canary Islands N of 
22N between the NW African coast and 31W. Fresh to moderate NE to 
ENE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found farther S from 12N to 
22N between the Mauritania coast and 31W, and also farther W from 
02N to 23N between 31W and 51W. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE 
trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident N of the Greater Antilles
between 60W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate 
with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail 
for the remainder of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and 
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by 
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at 
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this
time.

For the forecast west of 65W, light to gentle winds will prevail 
through Mon. A weak cold front will move off N Florida Tue before
stalling and retreating northwest through Tue night. Otherwise, 
weak high pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. 
Another cold front may move off N Florida Thu and bring moderate 
to locally fresh winds. Moderate NE to E swell east of 70W will 
persist through Mon.

$$

Chan