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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 15 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.      

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as 
far S as 13N96W, accompanied by seas to 21 ft, will gradually 
diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale winds 
will then pulse through at late Sun morning with model guidance 
now suggesting that minimal gale conditions will resume on Sun 
evening and continue through late Mon morning, then return again 
Mon evening.  

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave has its axis from 04N135W to 15N135W, moving 
westward at 12 kt.  Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 130W 
and 140W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia 
at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific 
coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W, then continues W-SW to 07N102W 
where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, 
which then continues W-NW through a weakening tropical wave at 
09N135W to beyond 09N140W. 

Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm 
either side of lines from 08N86W to 06N94W to 09N101W and from 
12N117W to 12N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of California: Moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are 
expected across the entire gulf waters tonight. Light N winds 
are forecast by late Fri and light and variable winds are 
expected by late Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the 
entire gulf waters on Sun night then becoming a fresh breeze 
over the northern waters on Mon. 

A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 
104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through 
the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft 
downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh 
to locally strong northerly flow is expected N of 12N between 
87W and 90W, including the Gulf of Fonseca, through late 
tonight. Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event 
will propagate SE into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
through late Fri before subsiding.

Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is 
forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. 
early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating W 
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to 
locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 
the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift 
westward and slowly diminish through Sat. 

A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W on Fri night 
accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 9 ft seas. 
The front will wash out along 130W early next week. Another 
round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 
30N140W late Tue.   

$$
Nelson