AXPZ20 KNHC 231407

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1342 UTC Fri Aug 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC.


Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 18.8N 115.0W at 1500 UTC, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has fallen to 993 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A general continued motion to the NNW at around 10 kt is expected for the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast today as the center tracks to near 20.0N 115.7W by this evening. Ivo is then forecast to weaken slowly, reaching 23.1N 117.2W by Saturday evening. The system is expected to weaken into a tropical depression Sunday as it continues NNW along the far outer waters of central Baja California. The current forecast track places Ivo just along the western boundary of Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for outer portions of the forecast waters from Port Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, including Clarion Island. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

Ivo remains sheared with the low level circulation to the NE of the significant convection. The strong winds with the storm are to the south and east of the center, with seas highest to the east of the center as well.


A tropical wave is near 103W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located mainly ahead of this wave from 08N to 15N between 103W and 111W.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N85W to low pressure near 10N99W to 14N108W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 15N120W to 13N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 78W and 103W, and scattered moderate convection is located within 150 nm either side of the trough between 126W and 136W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large southerly swell, will continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through late Sat as the storm passes across the far outer offshore waters.

Elsewhere, strong southerly winds are ongoing across the northern Gulf of California to the east of a trough analyzed over Baja California. This trough is helping to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 28N between 106W and 111W, including the southern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Gulf through Fri night, with seas generally running 5-8 ft. The local pressure gradient will relax by Sat, which will allow winds over the northern and central Gulf to diminish through the weekend. Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop this weekend as a trough expands northward along the Mexican coast from low pressure expected to develop near Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the coast of Baja California Sur early next week.


A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri, supporting 6-7 ft seas over the southern waters.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo.

High pressure of 1021 mb located near 31N139W maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of 120W. Overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate NE trade winds prevailed across the northern waters, except for fresh NE winds from 17N to 21N between 137W and 142W. These conditions will persist through the next couple days while high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of fresh to strong SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the monsoon trough and extends westward to 128W. The resulting long fetch has allowed seas to build to 8-11 ft well SE of the center of Ivo. As the monsoon trough west of Ivo continues to lift northward with the storm, the enhanced monsoonal flow combined with mixed swell will maintain 8-10 ft seas along the southern periphery of Ivo this evening. The fresh to strong SW monsoonal flow south of the trough is forecast to break down Sunday as Ivo pulls the monsoon trough northward and E tradewinds build into the region south of the exiting Ivo between 110W and 130W.