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AXPZ20 KNHC 051554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 07N108W, then resumes from 07N111W to 07N123W to 10N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 77W and 83W and from 06N to 08N between 118W and 120W. A surface trough is analyzed along the ITCZ from 09N108W to 05N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 07N between 108W and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong northerly winds and seas up to 7 ft are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Fresh NW to N winds are evident to the west of Baja California. Moderate NW to N winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Baja California, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish this afternoon. Winds will diminish on both sides of Baja California late tonight. The subtropical high will strengthen over the Pacific early this week. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over Mexico and the western U.S. is likely to cause fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California Mon night through Tue night. Fresh NW to N winds are possible near Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed. Fresh to locally strong N winds could briefly return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue. Light to gentle winds should prevail elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters through mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered moderate convection is currently seen on satellite imagery south of the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 7 ft are likely occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through Tue night, then remain moderate to fresh the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1030 mb high pressure centered near 38N130W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing fresh trades north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 105W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 26N and east of 138W, except for an area of fresh N winds north of 26N and east of 126W. South of the ITCZ, moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the area of fresh winds from 07N to 17N west of 115W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect strengthening trade winds and building seas north of the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 120W, today through Mon night as the pressure gradient increases in that area. A separate area of fresh N winds and building seas is expected well to the west of Baja California Norte tonight through Mon night.

$$ Hagen

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