AXNT20 KNHC 222339

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.


A tropical wave extends across the eastern Atlantic along 29W from 11N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the trough axis mainly south of 05N.


The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ starts west of a tropical wave near 03N32W to 01S46W. Scattered showers prevail within 50 nm north of the ITCZ.


A surface ridge prevails across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds are noted over the western half.

High pressure will become more E to W aligned along 30N during the weekend, in order to produce moderate to fresh E to SE wind flow across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western and SW parts of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.


The monsoon trough passes through the northern sections of Costa Rica, to the coastal sections of Panama into northern Colombia along 10N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail over Central America, while a cluster of showers is noted south of 15N and west of 76W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the whole basin.

High pressure across the west Atlantic will support fresh to strong pulsing trades across the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night, before diminishing modestly through the weekend. Developing low pressure across the eastern Pacific and Central America may produce very active weather across the SW Caribbean Fri through the weekend.


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic along 30N and west of 68W. A surface trough extends from 30N65W to 21N72W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. To the east, a 1021 mb surface high is centered near 26N48W. A second 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic from 14N northward from 60W eastward.

The cold front will continue sinking south across the northern waters this evening through Fri before stalling along 25N by late Fri, then gradually dissipating. High pressure N of the front will sink south to along 30N by Fri night and persist through the weekend. A broad inverted trough will persist north of Hispaniola through Fri.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine