AXNT20 KNHC 231743

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.


Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 36.6N 40.8W at 23/1500 UTC or 660 nm W of the Azores moving SSE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center. Chantal is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

A 1013 mb low is off the coast of Miami Florida near 25.5N79.8W at 23/1500 UTC. A surface trough extends from 29N80W to the low center to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-29N between 76W-80W to include the N Bahamas. The low is forecast to move near or over the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit development during that time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves from near the coast of east- central Florida to offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central Florida through the weekend. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22/23W from 04N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 19W-34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52/53W from 06N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is mostly E of the wave axis from 07N-12N between 47W-54W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 05N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia and Panama from 06N-10N between 71W-82W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N30W to a 1012 mb low near 09N42W to 08N50W. The ITCZ extends from 08N53W to the coast of Suriname near 06N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is near the low center from 07N-12N between 41W-47W.


A mid-level low is over the western Gulf of Mexico producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 24N-31N between 88W-97W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida from 23N-26N between 80W-85W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf.

Relatively weak high pressure extending from the W Atlantic to the NE Gulf of Mexico will change little through early next week. Moderate to fresh south-southeast winds will continue across the waters west of 90W through the period, while mainly light to gentle variable winds continue east of 90W. A mid-level low over the NW Gulf will support scattered to isolated showers through Sat night.


A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean producing isolated moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is over the E Caribbean from 14N-16N between 64W-67W. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Relatively dry air covers the rest of the Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue. The areal coverage of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase over the weekend and extend to the SW Caribbean by early next week as a tropical wave moves from the eastern to the central basin.


A 1013 mb low and surface trough is off the coast of Miami Florida. See above. A 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N52W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper-level low is over the W Atlantic near 32N65W producing scattered moderate convection from 27N-32N between 57W-67W.

The low off Miami Florida will be the dominate surface feature over the W Atlantic during the weekend.

$$ Formosa