AXNT20 KNHC 051726

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC.


The monsoon trough remains over the African continent near 07N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of the monsoon trough from 04N to 09N between the coast of Sierra Leone/Liberia and 16W. The ITCZ extends westward from off the coast of Guinea near 07N19W to 04N38W to the N coast of Suriname at 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 16W and 56W, including the coast of NE Brazil and Suriname.


A ridge of high pressure extends westward from N Florida to the E Mexican coast. This feature is dominating the central and E Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen over the W Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will linger across the NE Gulf through the middle of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the W and central Gulf through the next several days. While tranquil conditions persist in the E Gulf. A weak cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters Mon evening, stalling through the night before retreating inland Tue. The weak front will move back offshore by Wed evening, quickly stalling again and moving back inland early Thu.


A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW basin, N of Honduras. Otherwise, drier fresh to strong ENE trades with seas of 8 to 11 ft are dominating the central Caribbean Basin; while moderate to fresh trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen across the E basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the W basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean and S of Hispaniola through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Moderate NE to E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue through midweek. Active weather across the western Caribbean will end by tonight.


A cold front curves south-southwestward from a 1020 mb low at 31N51W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near this front N of 25N between 45W and 52W. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers near SE Florida. Convergent trades are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across E Cuba and the SE Bahamas, and also near the Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 18N between the Mauritania/Senegal coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A strong 1037 mb Azores High is channeling fresh to strong NE to ENE trades with seas at 8 to 11 ft, near the Canary Islands N of 22N between the NW African coast and 31W. Fresh to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found farther S from 12N to 22N between the Mauritania coast and 31W, and also farther W from 02N to 23N between 31W and 51W. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident N of the Greater Antilles between 60W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this time.

For the forecast west of 65W, light to gentle winds will prevail through Mon. A weak cold front will move off N Florida Tue before stalling and retreating northwest through Tue night. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Another cold front may move off N Florida Thu and bring moderate to locally fresh winds. Moderate NE to E swell east of 70W will persist through Mon.