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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1916 UTC Fri Jan 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N96W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N96W to 06N112W to 09N121W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong within 60 nm north of ITCZ
between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong from
08N to 12N between 118W and 132W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Latest ASCAT pass indicates winds have
diminished below gale force. Winds will continue to diminish,
falling to 20 kt or less this weekend. A plume of NE swell 
associated with the strong winds in the area the past few days 
continue to propagate well away from Tehuantepec, and mix with 
open ocean long period NW swell. 

Gulf of California: Winds will increase to fresh to strong 
behind a cold front in the northern gulf tonight. The front will 
gradually become ill defined on Sat as it moves southward with 
winds diminishing to moderate to fresh. The pressure gradient 
will begin to tighten across the area Sun, leading to fresh to 
strong winds across the entire gulf Sunday evening and night.

Elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, large NW swell 
continues to propagate SE across the area, with seas of 8-13 ft
prevailing. This large swell is producing high surf along coasts
and outer reefs of Baja California and mainland Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong tonight. Elsewhere
N of 09N, light to gentle offshore flow will prevail. Gentle 
southerly winds will prevail S of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the 
forecast waters. Seas 12 ft or greater prevail over much of the
forecast waters north of 25N, currently peaking near 14 ft. Seas
8 ft or greater cover the open waters west of 110W. Fresh to
strong trades will prevail north of the ITCZ to around 20N for
the next several days. 

$$
AL