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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1846 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Kenneth is near 16.2N 128.4W at 20/2100 UTC, moving W,
or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. 
Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 125W and 130W. Kenneth is 
forecast to remain a hurricane the next couple of days before 
moving over cooler waters. Refer to National Hurricane Center 
Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, 
and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 
KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W north of 09N, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
08N to 10N between 88W and 90W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N91W to 09N98W to
10N104W to 09N110W to 09N113W to 07N120W. It resumes from 13N130W
to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 13N between 90W and 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander E to W 
across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this 
week with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the 
trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to 
SE orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A 
moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja 
California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each 
evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja 
California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will 
persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a 
moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center 
that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: latest scatterometer pass indicates strong
northerly winds funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds
are forecast to remain near 25 kt through Monday morning, with
seas to 8 ft before decreasing. Afterwards, fresh N drainage 
winds are forecast on Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 
ft by Tue morning before subsiding. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast 
through this week.

Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon 
trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 
to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 39N138W extends a ridge 
southeast to near 23N115W. Outside the influence of Kenneth, 
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 120W. N swell with seas in the 7 to 9 ft 
range will propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, then 
merge with southerly swell generated by Kenneth over the waters N
of 26N and W of 130W on Tuesday. 

$$
AL