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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 192350

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


The trade wind flow in the southern Caribbean is expected to 
increase during the next day or two, and these winds are expected 
to reach gale-force in about 36 hours near the coast of Colombia.
A Gale Warning is currently in effect for that area. See latest 
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W and 
continues to 01N17W. The ITCZ begins near 01N17W and extends
westward to 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 n mi 
north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W.



A weak 1022 mb low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico has an associated trough that extends southward to the
coast of Mexico to near 19N 94W. A combination of the surface low
and an upper-level jet is producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms north of 25N between 93W and 96W. Fresh to strong
northwesterly winds continue to the west of the low, but winds are
generally out of the northeast to east and light across the
remainder of the region due to surface high pressure centered over
the northern Gulf coast. The low is expected to dissipate this
weekend when the system loses its upper-level support, and surface high
pressure is expected to settle to the east of the area for much 
of the weekend.


The southern end of a frontal boundary over the Atlantic is 
stationary across the Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to just off 
the coast of Nicaragua. Although the boundary is weakening, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms still exist within 180 n mi 
east of the front. Similar activity lies south of 11N west of 77W 
aided by upper-level diffluent flow. Northeasterly winds in the 20
to 25 kt range continue to the west of the front, but these winds
are expected to decrease during the next day or so while the 
front weakens. On the other hand, the trade wind flow to the east 
of the front is expected to increase to gale force near the coast
of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds to the north of 
the area. See the Special Features section for more details. 


Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers prevail across the 
island as a stalled front lies just to the west of the area. 
Since the front is expected to remain stationary, a continuation 
of cloudy skies with the potential for scattered showers are 
expected through Saturday. Fresh northeasterly winds are forecast 
over the Windward Passage for another day as high pressure builds 
across the western Atlantic.


A cold front is moving over the western Atlantic waters from 
31N 55W southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas near 21N 75W 
and then into the southwestern Caribbean. Winds are in the 20 to 
25 kt range near the northern end of the boundary, but generally 
light to moderate elsewhere. Only a limited amount of cloudiness 
and showers lie within 180 n mi east of the front. A weak surface 
trough lies from 24N 44W to 18N 47W, but this feature is not 
causing any significant weather. An associated upper-level trough 
over the central Atlantic is producing some showers from 12N to 
20N between 25N and 40W. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores high 
dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. 

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