Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241153
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N12W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 
33W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 3N TO 11N.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...IN ADVANCE 
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL U.S.A. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS GUIDING THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR 
SO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 850 MB TO BE ON
A LINE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL 
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE FRONT TO 
HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BY THANKSGIVING EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NOW TO THE 
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND THE GULF COASTS OF EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED 850 MB TROUGH THAT STRETCHES 
FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS 
STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF GULF OF URABA
TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST 
OF 84W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N69W 
TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL 
COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW...CLOSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
24N75W 20N74W. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS 
AND NOW ARE FROM 23N TO 27N WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE 
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. ONE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N50W BEYOND 32N48W. SHOWERS AND SOME 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC 
FLOW WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N42W 25N46W 16N49W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 33N43W TO 27N48W AND 23N55W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N50W AND BEYOND 31N57W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

$$
MT