AGXX40 KNHC 231830
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
230 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front over the north central Gulf will stall out from the
northeast Gulf to north central Gulf through tonight. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will continue within
about 90 nm SE of the frontal boundary through tonight. A
stronger cold front will enter the northwestern gulf late tonight,
crossing the western Gulf early Wednesday before merging with
the other dissipating boundary over the northeast Gulf by
Wednesday night. The cold front will then cross Florida Thursday
with the tail end of the front stalling out from the Florida
Straits to the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The stalled front
will then dissipate through Friday.
Strong southwesterly winds will develop early Wednesday east of
the front over the northeastern gulf. As the stronger cold front
merges with the existing front Wednesday, a new round of
convection will develop along and east of the front. This
convection is expected to contain numerous showers and
thunderstorms as it crosses the east Gulf Wednesday into
High pressure will build west over the Gulf Thursday and shift
over the eastern Gulf Friday into Saturday.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
The E Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support showers and
thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean the next few days.
A tropical wave is entering the western Caribbean and will
continue to move west the next day or so, before losing its
characteristics over central America later on Wednesday. Another
tropical wave east of the southern Windward Islands will move into
the SE Caribbean Wednesday and then cross the SE Caribbean
High pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to
strong east winds over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras tonight. The high will slide east through Wednesday,
as pressures lower over central and south America. This will
cause the fresh to strong winds to expand in coverage northward
across the central Caribbean Wednesday, persisting through
Friday. The high will then flatten from west to east Friday night
and Saturday, which will help to decrease the winds over the
north central Caribbean, and bring a return to the fresh to
strong east winds over the Gulf of Honduras.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
Showers and thunderstorms as well as southwest winds will
increase through tonight east of northern Florida well ahead of a
cold front. The strong winds will expand east to near 70W through
Wednesday north of 30N with seas building to near 8 ft. As the
front crosses northern Florida Wednesday night, winds will
increase to near gale force north of 29N, just east of a line of
showers and thunderstorms that is expected to develop ahead of
the front. Latest model guidance suggests that winds could reach
gale force east of the front, just east of north Florida early
Thursday. Will have to monitor this trend and ensure that this is
not just associated with mesoscale convection.
The line of convection and trailing cold front will
cross the waters just east of Florida early Thursday. The front
will reach from near 31N72W to 26N79W Friday before weakening as
it drifts east across the northeast zones through Friday night.
High pressure will build east across the region Friday through
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
.GULF OF MEXICO...
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
For additional information, please visit:
.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.