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Proposed Marine Zones - Offshore Forecasts
Proposed
Marine Zones for Offshore Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean
Sea, Tropical North Atlantic, and the Southwest North Atlantic Ocean
Current
offshore zones are too large to describe many local weather impacts
The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch produces Offshore Forecasts
for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Southwest North Atlantic.
These areas are subdivided into zones, as shown below.
These zones cover very large areas that include reefs, islands, and
channels, as well as coastlines with rugged
terrain. This complex geography is often the cause of localized
but
significant weather impacts. For example, the northern extent of the
Andes Mountains protrudes into the Caribbean along the coast of
Colombia, usually enhancing an area of strong trade winds over the
south central Caribbean Sea. While this well known and prominent local
effect is routinely accounted for in the OFFNT3 Offshore Forecast, it
is usually necessary to omit mention of other local impacts around the
region in order to keep the forecast text concise. The large sizes of
these
forecast areas equate to fairly low precision forecasts. If more
detail were added to the forecast text, then the forecast wording would
be overly complex and difficult to understand. Sadly, more detail
usually means less clarity.
New,
smaller marine zones that offer more
detail...yet are easier to read
The
solution is
to divide the existing offshore forecast zones into smaller pieces.
This would allow the forecaster the opportunity to describe more subtle
differences in winds and seas than is currently possible, although with
more simplified wording.
Why has this not been done already? Over the years, the size of the
zones
had to be fairly large in order to limit the number of zone forecasts
that had to be produced. Because each zone forecast had to be manually
typed, there has always been a limited amount of time available to
derive and
prepare the forecast for each zone. Thus the number of zones had to be
limited in order to give the forecaster enough preparation time.
We now have the ability to offer offshore forecasts that are more
detailed than
the large broad-brushed marine forecasts we currently produce. How is
this possible? New technology.
We are
entering an era where we can prepare a marine
forecast database that will drive
sophisticated text formatters to produce the text products. This is
more efficient, allowing us the ability to produce a greater number of
text-based forecasts than was previously possible. This also allows us
to put much more detail in the forecasts than ever before, yet issue a
product that is more concise and easier to read than we can currently
manage. We can
even present these forecasts on the Internet in English,
Spanish, and French...in both English and metric units!
We have divided our existing marine zones into sectors based on
meteorological and geographical considerations.
While we based our decisions mainly on
localized weather
patterns, we also tried to incorporate boundaries that would
be as
easy as possible to describe and conceptualize geographically. Please
take a look at the proposed marine zones below. The
underlying colors
represent wind speeds that are typically noted in that respective area.
Light orange represents light winds, darker orange represents slightly
stronger winds, and the pinks and purples represent even stronger
winds. Click on each zone to get a brief description of the zone, and a
sample forecast for the zone.
Your
feedback is important! Do
these zone divisions make sense to you?
Would you like to see modifications made to the boundaries? If so,
please describe your changes? Are the names of the proposed marine
zones appropriate? Do you
have any questions or concerns regarding any aspect of these proposed
changes?
To
summarize:
|
Proposed
Marine Zone
Configuration |
Current
Marine Zone
Configuration |
| Describes
Local Effects |
Yes |
Limited
capability |
| Concise,
Easy to Read |
Yes |
Often
complex and not concise |
| Available
Languages |
English,
Spanish, French |
English
only |
| Units |
English
and Metric |
English
only |
Contact
Us
Please let know what you think of this proposal. Email us at: Hugh.Cobb@noaa.gov
or telephone (305) 229-4454.
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